43.08%
7-Day Accuracy
441 signals
+9.06%
Avg Alpha When Right
vs SPY benchmark
1.42x
Win/Loss Ratio
Premium
+4.2pp
Consensus Edge
Premium
Methodology
How we measure: Every story generates a directional signal (bullish or bearish) on a specific ticker. We cluster signals on the same ticker within each measurement window and score the consensus direction against actual market outcomes, measured as excess return vs SPY.
What counts: ≥0.5% favorable excess return = outperformed. ≥0.5% adverse = underperformed. We require 10+ signals per window before reporting accuracy rates.
No LLM in scoring: All price data from Yahoo Finance. Scoring is pure math on real market data, computed daily, and cannot be retroactively modified.
Sample: Best Call
| Ticker | Headline | Direction | Alpha | Sources | Published |
|---|
| INTC |
Commerce Department Proposes Expanded AI Chip Export Fr... |
bullish |
+168.02% |
1 |
2026-03-27 |
Performance by Horizon
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha Win | Avg Alpha Loss | W/L Ratio | Expected Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
660 |
36.21% |
+5.23% |
-3.49% |
1.5x |
-0.33% |
| 7d |
441 |
43.08% |
+9.06% |
-6.5% |
1.39x |
+0.2% |
| 30d |
187 |
39.57% |
+20.27% |
-14.5% |
1.4x |
-0.74% |
| 60d |
28 |
42.86% |
+45.47% |
-10.92% |
4.16x |
+13.25% |
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43.08%
7-Day Accuracy
441 signals
+9.06%
Avg Alpha When Right
vs SPY benchmark
1.39x
Win/Loss Ratio
Positive expected value
+8.86pp
Consensus Edge
Multi-source vs single
Performance by Horizon
Accuracy and alpha metrics across measurement windows. Only windows with 10+ signals shown.
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha Win | Avg Alpha Loss | W/L Ratio | Expected Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
660 |
36.21% |
+5.23% |
-3.49% |
1.5x |
-0.33% |
| 7d |
441 |
43.08% |
+9.06% |
-6.5% |
1.39x |
+0.2% |
| 30d |
187 |
39.57% |
+20.27% |
-14.5% |
1.4x |
-0.74% |
| 60d |
28 |
42.86% |
+45.47% |
-10.92% |
4.16x |
+13.25% |
Consensus Strength
Does coverage from multiple independent sources improve signal accuracy?
Multi-source signals outperform single-source by 8.86 percentage points.
1322 total signals scored. This metric stabilizes as more data accumulates.
1 source
36.41%
931 signals
2 sources
38.5%
200 signals
3+ sources
52.36%
191 signals
Directional Breakdown
Bullish and bearish signal accuracy, reported separately. Only windows with 10+ signals shown.
Bullish (2496 raw scores)
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
605 |
36.03% |
+0.59% |
| 7d |
409 |
43.28% |
+0.73% |
| 30d |
174 |
41.38% |
+0.63% |
| 60d |
27 |
44.44% |
+13.87% |
Bearish (389 raw scores)
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
55 |
38.18% |
+1.56% |
| 7d |
32 |
40.63% |
-0.68% |
| 30d |
13 |
15.38% |
-13.56% |
Notable Calls
Each call is evaluated using its longest matured window (1d / 7d / 30d / 60d / 90d). Window shown next to each alpha.
Top Performers
| Ticker | Headline | Direction | Alpha | Sources | Published |
|---|
| INTC |
Commerce Department Proposes Expanded AI Chip Export Fr... |
bullish |
+168.02% 60d |
1 |
2026-03-27 |
| 066570.KS |
LG Electronics in Talks with Nvidia on Robotics, AI Dat... |
bullish |
+109.45% 30d |
1 |
2026-04-29 |
| RXT |
Rackspace Technology and AMD Sign MOU to Deliver Govern... |
bullish |
+104.83% 7d |
1 |
2026-05-07 |
| ANTH |
Anthropic in Talks with Trump Administration About Next... |
bullish |
+91.81% 30d |
1 |
2026-04-13 |
| RIOT |
Sovereign Wealth Fund Disclosure Reveals $800M Bitcoin ... |
bullish |
+85.38% 60d |
1 |
2026-03-27 |
Worst Performers
| Ticker | Headline | Direction | Alpha | Sources | Published |
|---|
| BIRD |
Allbirds Shares Jump Over 400% on Plans to Pivot from S... |
bullish |
-79.65% 30d |
3 |
2026-04-15 |
| GIG |
Hadron Energy Secures Strategic Investment and Multi-Pr... |
bullish |
-77.85% 30d |
1 |
2026-04-28 |
| ONCO |
Realbotix Launches Vinci AI Vision System with First De... |
bullish |
-75.78% 30d |
1 |
2026-04-09 |
| ARM |
TSMC Fully Exits Arm Holdings Investment with $231 Mill... |
bearish |
-68.85% 30d |
1 |
2026-04-29 |
| XNDU |
Nvidia Backing Propels Xanadu Quantum Technologies Stoc... |
bullish |
-63.75% 30d |
2 |
2026-04-17 |
Weekly Commentary
Our signals this week generated 371 directional scores across 124 tickers, with 148 outperforming and 183 underperforming for an accuracy rate of 39.89%. That figure sits below the 7-day cumulative accuracy of 43.08% and marks the second consecutive period of sub-40% weekly performance.
Against the longer record, the trajectory remains uneven. The 7-day horizon continues to deliver the only positive expected alpha at +0.2%, supported by a 1.39x win/loss ratio, while the 1-day and 30-day windows both post negative expected alphas of -0.33% and -0.74%. Only the small 60-day sample shows material outperformance, with a 4.16x win/loss ratio and +13.25% expected alpha, though that cohort contains just 28 signals.
The consensus strength data reveals a clear pipeline edge once multiple sources align. Accuracy rises from 36.41% on single-source signals to 52.36% on those with three or more sources, producing the reported +8.86 percentage point consensus premium. This gap indicates that source multiplicity, rather than volume alone, drives the incremental lift.
In the coming week we will track the 60-day cohort as it matures, given its outsized win/loss ratio, alongside any new signals that reach three-source consensus. The data continue to indicate that detection reliability improves most when coverage breadth increases rather than when single-source volume expands.
Methodology
Signal clustering: Signals on the same ticker published within N days of each other (where N = measurement window) form a cluster. If 67%+ agree on direction, the cluster is scored as a single signal. Mixed signals are excluded.
Accuracy rate: The percentage of scored clusters where the consensus direction outperformed SPY by ≥0.5% excess return. Underperformed = ≥0.5% adverse excess return. Between = neutral (excluded from accuracy).
Alpha metrics: Avg Alpha Win is the mean excess return on correct calls. Avg Alpha Loss is the mean excess return on incorrect calls. Win/Loss Ratio = Avg Win / Avg Loss — must exceed 1.0 for positive expected value. Expected Alpha = (accuracy × avg win) − ((1 − accuracy) × avg loss).
Consensus edge: The accuracy improvement when multiple independent sources reinforce the same signal vs single-source calls. A positive edge validates the multi-source pipeline.
Measurement windows: 1, 7, 30, 60, and 90 trading days. Short windows (1d) capture noise; 7-30d windows capture signal quality. Rates require 10+ signals to display.
Data integrity: All price data from Yahoo Finance. No LLM involvement in scoring — pure math on real market data. Scores computed daily and cannot be retroactively modified.